DSP TATHYA - July 2023


Consumption and Investment Demand

Consumer sentiment remains high, despite a slight moderation in personal loans. Non-oil imports falling is partly a price effect. Lower POL consumption comes on account of soft car sales.

Even though headline came in higher than the consensus, it was majorly driven by a surge in food inflation . Core remaining steady at 5 . 2 %, comes as a comfort .

Industry & Manufacturing  - Overview

Despite a slight moderation in credit to industry, industrial activity has remained strong, reflecting positive growth and thus, greater demand, especially for capital, consumer goods. The sharp decline in WPI cannot be missed, which obviously translated in low prices to final consumers

Services PMI

Services PMI has slowed on account of global economic slowdown and thus was observed a slight moderation in services exports. The moderation in Railway and Airport traffic, is purely owed to high base.

Gsec 10 Year Yield

The prevailing money supply has surpassed the peak recorded in July’20 of 13.2%. This development serves to reinforce the notion that the current monetary policy is notably less restrictive in nature. 10-year Gsec yields have remained stable, after easing from highs. A fall in risk premia is reflected in lower corporate bond yields.

On fiscal front, FY24 has started with excess RBI surplus but also with higher subsidy announcement for fertilizers. We expect the year to close as per the budget estimates

External Headwinds Overview

External headwinds have eased and RBI has started to re-build the reserves while keeping the currency almost at similar levels. A weakening dollar index appears to have exerted downward pressure on the currency basket. A proportionally greater fall in imports than exports has eased trade deficit.

India saw FII inflows in equity, but have seemed to moderate in debt. We re-iterate that given India is appearing a steady ship in choppy waters, it is likely to get its fair share of FII flows. Even though SIP book slowed, the MF equity flows have experienced a notable increase.

Exhibit 1: A modest increase in Capital expenditure is enough to trigger a significant multiplier effect in Infrastructure

Exhibit 1: Share of IT & Business Services

Exhibit 2: The substantial increase in Money Supply has been notably significant, surpassing the last high of 13.2% in July’20

Exhibit 2 : Investments - 3QMA (LHS) - Private Consumption - 3QMA (RHS)

Exhibit 3: The decrease in the CPI is evidently aligned with the decline observed in the WPI. However, the temporary surge in Food Inflation keeps the Headline Inflation from experiencing a more pronounced reduction.

Exhibit 3: Global Composite PMI (RHS) - India Composite PMI (LHS)

Exhibit 4: While the fall in crude oil price has substantially pulled down the Import Value, the Import Quantity continues to grow.

Exhibit 4: Total Net Foreign (RHS)
 

Exhibit 5: A sequential improvement in Trade balance can be attributed to a proportionally larger decline in imports compared to that in exports.

Exhibit 5: E Toll collections (LHS) - E Way Bill (RHS)