TATHYA April 2023

Consumer sentiments continue to be strong. POL consumption is now back to its pre-covid levels and auto demand is healthy. Overall, the slowdown, if any, is yet to be visible in hard data

Inflation eased in Mar-23, aided partly by base and partly by slower momentum. Cereals’ prices contracted sequentially. Services inflation, however, remains reasonably sticky

Manufacturing PMI continues to show sharp expansion. IIP growth is also healthy and robust. Producer prices have contracted aiding margins and reflecting positive effect on retail inflation

Services PMI shows strength. All other services indicators remain strong. There’s, however, some slowdown in e-toll collections. Air/Rail passenger traffic remains strong

10-year Gsec yields eased after the April MPC as RBI opted for a pause. We re-iterate our view peak rates are behind us and investing in duration is likely a good choice

FY23 fiscal numbers are progressing in line with expectations. Any surprises are unlikely. Slight seasonal moderation in GST has now reversed

External headwinds have mildly eased as crude prices fell. Trade deficit has eased from record highs as imports slowed. Services surplus aided current account balance.

India saw some FII inflows in equity and debt In March. Private transfers were record high and aided lower CAD. SIP flows and MF flows increased significantly in Mar-23