You see a fund that delivered 40% returns last year and feel tempted to invest. This is called chasing past returns, choosing funds based only on recent performance. It’s a common mistake and often doesn’t work out.
Why it happens: Past performances are visible. Future performance isn't. So, we assume what worked recently will keep working.
Why it fails: A fund that rallied 40% might have been riding a sectoral boom. That boom might be over. Or the fund took concentrated bets that paid off once but won't repeat.
SEBI mandates the disclaimer "past performance is not indicative of future returns" for a reason. It's not legal jargon. It's a warning.
What to do instead: Look at performance across 3-5 years, rolling returns and multiple market cycles. Has the fund been consistent? Has it managed downside during corrections? That tells you more than one stellar year.
